Let’s take a closer look at Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland II. This Saturday, February 3rd, 2025 will feature a rematch 13 months in the making for the Middleweight Title. Last January in Canada, Dricus Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC) won a close Split Decision to take the title from the aforementioned former champion Sean Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC). Now these two will take their talents to the land down under.
After the first match, Du Plessis, known as DDP, submitted former champion Israel Adesanya in the 4th round before accepting this rematch. For Sean Strickland, he won a split decision versus Paulo Costa to earn his chance back at the title. With the Middleweight Division shaping up to be extremely competitive after the recent KO win for Nassourdine Imavov, this fight is crucial to determining what is next for the division.
Strickland vs. Du Plessis I
The first matchup between the two was a very tough matchup that was determined by razor thin margins. Sean Strickland, the champion at the time outstruck Du Plessis by 43 total strikes. To counter, DDP landed 6 of his 11 takedowns earning valuable minutes of control. The fight was determined by the middle rounds as Strickland won rounds 1 and 5 quite clearly behind his jab.
Rounds 2 – 4 were littered with back-and-forth affairs of grappling and striking exchanges. The difference makers for the current champ was his constant forward pressure and his ability to mix in his takedowns. For DDP, his kicking game was extremely important as he was able to work his kicks to all 3 levels. Round 3, the round that had the judges split was decided by a high kick by the challenger that was considered the biggest shot of the round.
The stats were very similar for both men in these middle rounds, but the forward pressure and takedowns are what gives them to DDP. Du Plessis, also outstruck Sean Strickland to the body (32-10) and to the legs (24-6), showcasing his striking diversity. This is of the utmost importance as it makes it harder to predict his next move.
Both men left the fight with damaged faces. Sean Strickland was bleeding down the side of his head, whilst Du Plessis had a nasty black eye and swelling. But both men fought through and tested themselves, showcasing their toughness and grit. The rematch is the right matchup to make to provide clarity at 185 pounds as the division is turning over a new leaf.
Since this fight, DDP has continued to improve his well-rounded game and showcased his new and improved cardio post-nose surgery. Sean Strickland, the #1 contender showcased his consistent game featuring a front kick and jab as he beat Paulo Costa. The split-decision nature of that fight is questionable as Strickland was winning in dominant fashion. As both men have beaten the former champion, Israel Adesanya, this matchup will provide clarity on who is truly atop the division.
So who wins the matchup this time?
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du plessis iI
Before we jump into the breakdown, let’s talk about strengths and weaknesses.
(C) Dricus Du Plessis
Strengths
- High Level Grappling
- Awkward Angles and Approach
- Power
- Adaptability/Coachability
- Ability to use both stances
Weaknesses
- Previously in question cardio (this has shown vast improvements in his last 2 fights)
- Clean, Traditional Striking
- Wears Damage
Sean Strickland
Strengths
- Strong Jab and Front Kick
- Forward Pressure
- Never Ending Cardio
- Takedown Defense
Weaknesses
- Lack of Diversity in his game
- Power (he’s a death by 1,000 cuts striker)
- Will get lost in the crowd
Both men are extremely talented fighters. Creating a list of weaknesses is hard, as both men have shown that they can bounce back and win big fights with their adjustments and skills. As they headline the top of this card, the Australian crowd is in for a fun matchup. These two will certainly bring a trash-talking, fun press conference and will be equally as fun in the cage.
But, how does each fighter take the W and the belt home this time around?
How Does Dricus Du Plessis Win?
Similarly to their last fight, DDP needs to showcase why he is the champion. He will need to rely on his forward pressure with a mix of his grappling game. With his improved cardio, the South African champion will need to be prepared to go 5 rounds, with the expectation to end it quickly this time around. Although Du Plessis and his team can look at past Strickland fights, the most important fight on the tape will be their first encounter.
In that first fight, it was clear DDP could get the former champion down to the ground. To do that and maintain his cardio, he had to shoot at opportune times. For DDP, to win this one quicker, he must get the fight down early and often and force the jiu-jitsu game of Sean Strickland to show itself. Strickland has a good getup game and makes it hard to get him down but we have yet to see Strickland in a true submission attempt.
Additionally, the champion will need to continue to showcase his striking by staying on the front foot. As rounds 1 and 5 of the first match should show him and his team, Strickland is an active striker and can win minutes when pushing forward. DDP must use his jab as well as his hooks and kicks to keep the former champion off balance. Du Plessis has very strong striking and works it to all 3 levels. If he can work the body and legs like the last matchup, that will help slow down the never-ending cardio of Strickland.
For Du Plessis though, he cannot get caught in the moment. He cannot let the crowd impact his performance. He cannot let Stricklands demand to stand and bang influence his approach. DDP must fight his style of fight and systematically break down the challenger. To keep his belt, DDP knows the formula. Now, he must make it clearer and not leave it in the hands of the judges.
How Does Sean Strickland win?
Everyone who has watched Sean Strickland fight knows how he will beat his opponents. He will walk them down, eat a punch, and throwback two more. He uses his range finders extremely well and tries to break his opponent. He is like a mosquito that is continuously trying to get a meal. This style has proven to impact DDP in the past as he did damage his face on both sides and clearly won 2/5 rounds.
If Sean Strickland can keep his pace and continuously move forward in this fight, he will have a great chance of regaining his belt. He must keep DDP on his back foot, not allowing him to shoot takedowns. Not allowing him to send big body kicks. Those kicks he will then change the levels and Strickland can counter this by using his forward pressure.
Additionally, if Sean Strickland wants to throw in a new wrinkle, his counter-grappling game can be showcased here. Strickland and his team at Xtreme Couture know that DDP will eventually shoot a takedown so Strickland is certainly training his takedown defense. But, it would be a good switch, if Strickland works on his grappling counters and maybe takes some time on the top if the oppurtunity shows itself. That could help zap the gas tank of the champion, he must stay careful of his slick jiu-jitsu though.
For Sean Strickland, he knows every fight he has will be fought with close margins. His lack of diversity and his ability to take a punch allow any opponent to throw a wrench in the game plan. But, Strickland’s heart and brain keep him ahead of nearly every opponent he has faced. Strickland needs to use those intangibles to keep the fight in his zone and that will be his recipe for success.
Final Verdict
Talking apples to apples; on a different day, Sean Strickland could have won their first matchup. On this day, either man could showcase their game plan and get the win. In Australia, neither man has a home-field advantage and is taking a very long flight to get there. They both have similar disadvantages when it comes to time zone changes and unfamiliarity with the territory. Strickland does have one fight and victory in Australia in the past to potentially give him a slight edge.
Both of these fighters are firmly entrenched at the top of the division and have earned this opportunity. In this matchup, it seems that the fight will go differently than the last matchup and that could be to the benefit of both fighters. If either man can make the better adjustment, they can fully control the matchup this time around but this is chess, not checkers and it is never that simple.
Look for DDP to push his pace more aggressively than in the last fight. In their first matchup, DDP tested his striking more than typical. As a true warrior, he always will look to test his striking, but if you see the Adesanya fight, you can tell that he is using his striking to get to his grappling. That will need to happen here and if he can get Strickland down early and keep him down, that may mess with Strickland’s mental. For Sean Strickland, if he can keep moving forward he can hurt and control DDP, but DDP has proven he can continue to move and adjust.
In this match, it seems that DDP will be able to make more improvements and adjustments to control the fight. Control the range, control the match. Look for DDP to make the necessary adjustments as Strickland’s game is rinse and repeat. The champion and his team are notorious for great gameplans and one should expect that again this weekend. Anticipate the Middleweight champion remaining atop the division and this time managing to get a finish to defend the belt. Mixing his striking into his grappling will be essential.
The vision here is a big combination of hooks pushing Sean Strickland against the fence. DDP shooting a double leg and getting it to the ground. Before working to the back and getting a rear naked choke before the championship rounds.
Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis by Submission Round 3
