The UFC Fight Night main event between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales features a significant odds gap, reflecting the contrasting trajectories of the two welterweights. As of fight day, Morales is a heavy favorite.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales – Fight Day Odds
Michael Morales is the major favorite as of fight day with odds ranging from -800 to -950, while Burns is a substantial underdog, listed between +540 and +600 at major sportsbooks. These odds have widened since the opening lines, which saw Morales at -500 and Burns at +300, indicating increasing confidence from bettors and oddsmakers in Morales as the event drew closer. Check out the best place to buy bitcoins right here.
The betting odds for Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales have shifted notably in the lead-up to fight day. When the lines first opened, Morales was already favored, with most sportsbooks listing him around -500, while Burns was a moderate underdog at approximately +300. As fight week progressed, the odds moved further in Morales’ favor. By midweek, Morales’ line had shortened to between -700 and -800, while Burns’ odds as an underdog lengthened to the +500 to +550 range. On fight day, the odds reached their widest point. Morales was listed as high as -950 at some sportsbooks, with Gilbert Burns at +600.
Brazil’s Gilbert Burns is a former title challenger who enters the bout on a three-fight losing streak, having recently lost to Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, and Belal Muhammad, all of whom are ranked highly in the division. Burns is known for his Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials, knockout power, and experience, but recent performances suggest a decline in durability and effectiveness against younger, physically imposing opponents.
Michael Morales is an undefeated athlete and has quickly risen through the UFC ranks after earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. He possesses a significant size and reach advantage-standing two inches taller and with an eight-inch longer reach than Gilbert Burns. Morales is recognized for his striking power, averaging over five significant strikes per minute, and has a strong background in judo and wrestling, which has contributed to his high takedown defense rate of 92%. He has a knockout win rate over 70%.
The method of victory most commonly predicted is a knockout or technical knockout for Morales, particularly in the later rounds. Analysts note that Morales’ striking and physical advantages, combined with Burns’ recent struggles and age, suggest Morales will look to keep the fight standing and gradually wear Burns down. Burns’ best chance is seen as taking the fight to the ground and leveraging his grappling expertise, but Morales’ defensive wrestling is expected to neutralize this approach.
In summary, the consensus among oddsmakers and analysts is a win for Michael Morales, likely by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight. The odds have shifted further in Morales’ favor as the fight approaches, reflecting a belief that the younger, undefeated fighter will continue his ascent in the division, while Burns’ days as a top contender may be coming to an end.
