Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France are set to compete for the UFC flyweight championship at UFC 317 on June 28, 2025. Let’s take a look at the changes of the odds over time.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France – Fight Week Odds
As fight week unfolded, the betting odds showed Pantoja as a clear favorite, with little movement or change as the event approached. Initially, oddsmakers set Pantoja as a moderate to strong favorite. Early lines at some books had Pantoja around -215 to -250, meaning bettors would need to wager $215 to $250 to win $100 on the champion, while Kara-France was listed at +160 to +210 early on, meaning a $100 bet on the challenger would return $160 to $210 if he won, this includes wagering offshore sportsbooks and onshore.
As fight week progressed, the odds settled in a tight range, with most sportsbooks now listing Alexandre Pantoja between -245 and -280, and Kara-France between +200 and +220. The odds did not experience significant swings or late surges for either fighter, indicating stable confidence in Pantoja retaining his title.
Analysts and previews note that Alexandre Pantoja’s strength lies in his durability, grappling, and championship experience, with a seven-fight win streak and a history of submitting top contenders. Kara-France brings knockout power and improved defensive wrestling, but most predictions favor Pantoja to win by submission or decision, given his ability to control fights on the ground and wear opponents down.
However, some observers, including fellow fighter Manel Kape, believe Kara-France could keep the fight standing and win by decision or late stoppage if he can defend takedowns and land his right hand.
There is no consensus on the exact method or round, but most expect the fight to go over 2.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and tend to go deep into their bouts. Pantoja has never been finished in the UFC, and Kara-France usually makes it to the later rounds unless he lands a knockout, which is possible but not expected by most oddsmakers and analysts.
Alexandre Pantoja has built a dominant UFC run, currently holding the flyweight championship and riding an impressive win streak that includes victories over top contenders and successful title defenses against Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and Kai Asakura. Kai Kara-France, meanwhile, has steadily climbed the flyweight ranks with notable knockout wins over Rogerio Bontorin, Cody Garbrandt, and Steve Erceg, earning a reputation for his striking power despite some setbacks against elite competition. The two first met in 2016 on The Ultimate Fighter 24, where Pantoja defeated Kara-France by unanimous decision in a closely contested bout.
Pantoja has been a steady favorite throughout fight week, with odds remaining stable and most expecting him to win, likely by submission or decision, though Kara-France has a puncher’s chance and could surprise if he keeps the fight standing. The fight is anticipated to go into the later rounds.
